Rugby World Cup 2011: All Blacks Hold Key to New Zealand's Wellbeing

David Kirk, left, holds the Webb Ellis Cup in 1987, the last time New Zealand won the tournament. Photograph: Ross Setford/Associated Press

Back in 1987, when the Rugby World Cup took its first faltering steps, few people were particularly interested. The former All Black great Don Clarke was invited to kick the match ball through the posts before the opening game and promptly tore a hamstring. The Italian anthem was played on crackling vinyl only to cut out halfway through. After New Zealand had beaten France in the final, several players were back at their day jobs by Monday morning.

To contrast such a village-fete atmosphere with the 2011 edition is to be reminded how far the sport has advanced. New Zealanders are resigned to never hosting the tournament again; a population of 4.3 million means they simply do not have the economic clout. Estimates of how many overseas visitors will assemble in New Zealand continue to fluctuate, but the latest official figure is 95,000, almost a quarter of whom are making the trek from the UK. The organisers have even sold 55,000 tickets for a pool match between Fiji and Samoa, no mean feat even in Oceania.

For a nation still trying to regroup from the deadly earthquake that hit Christchurch in February, it is a bittersweet sensation. Kiwis are not naturally demonstrative but, on the streets of Dunedin, Hamilton and Auckland, there is an overwhelming sense of now or never. If the All Blacks could just do the decent thing and win the Webb Ellis Cup for the first time since the Special K era of David Kirk and John Kirwan, they could rest easy. "It has been a tough 12 months or so in New Zealand, with what has happened in Christchurch, what happened in Pike River with the mine disaster and the economic situation," said Martin Snedden, the tournament's chief executive. "I think the country is ready to have a party. We are ready."

Sadly for long-suffering All Black supporters, World Cups are not won to order. One missed Dan Carter drop goal or a split-second shake of Quade Cooper's hips could yet prompt another four years of introspection, always assuming New Zealand have not been ambushed already en route to the final.

Which is what lends this tournament its particular crackle. The temptation is to make comparisons with 1995 when South Africa were crowned world champions amid scenes so extraordinary they made a Hollywood film about it. The difference is that the Springboks had little prior notion such a feat might be possible. Graham Henry's All Blacks, as the former fly-half Grant Fox helpfully put it the other day, know they have a massive ape – "It's not a monkey, it's a gorilla" – to prise off their backs.

Nor has any host country conquered the world since Nelson Mandela handed the trophy to Francois Pienaar on that remarkable day in Johannesburg. The past three winners, reflecting the sweat-stained realities of the professional era, have been teams who planned their campaigns meticulously for months if not years in advance. There is no reason to suspect anything different this time, although Australia have the look of a team coming good at precisely the right time.

So what of the European challenge? Ireland are stuck in a peat bog of misery, largely bereft of the confidence they exuded in March. Suddenly it is not their Australian pool game that holds the key but the concluding fixture with Italy in Dunedin on 2 October. France have shown some encouraging flickers, without quite erasing doubts about their mental strength against quality opposition. Scotland's pre-tournament profile has been positively subterranean, while Wales may have to beat South Africa this weekend to ensure their pool qualification.

And England? No one really knows. They should be more than capable of exploiting a fair draw and, by virtue of maintaining their recent psychological hold over France, advancing to the semi-finals. At that point they could easily meet the Wallabies, whom they have beaten twice in the past 15 months. On current form they are not a looming threat to New Zealand but Courtney Lawes, Ben Youngs and Manu Tuilagi all have the precocious ability to make an eye‑catching impact. With Jonny Wilkinson to slot the goals, even All Black fans will be wary about taking them for granted.

Then again, Martin Johnson's team could just as easily disappear into a cul-de-sac of their own tactical making against Argentina and end up requiring victory over Andy Robinson's Scotland to reach the last eight. Johnson's mantra is that Test matches are generally won by sides who make the fewest mistakes. It is a truism that does not take into account the star quality all world champions must possess. Jake White's Springboks had Bryan Habana; Clive Woodward's England had Jason Robinson. If the English really are to be serious contenders, they need Chris Ashton and Ben Foden to rediscover the sharpness that helped secure four straight Six Nations wins.

The Springboks under Peter de Villiers face a similar challenge. There will be no shortage of teams at this World Cup who can tackle. Samoa, who beat the Wallabies in June, will cause at least one opposing team serious grief but, once again, will have to do more than simply thunder down a narrow 15-metre channel. The All Blacks can only hope Kieran Read recovers swiftly from injury and that Carter and Richie McCaw stay fit. News that Henry intends largely to abandon the rotation policy that backfired last time is sensible enough but is also tempting fate. At least they have Sonny Bill Williams, a man more than capable of sprinkling a little stardust on proceedings. "Everyone knows what he can do," said his centre partner Ma'a Nonu. "He's a megastar and a rock star and a great athlete. If he can do his magic, hopefully I can run off him."

For the competition truly to be a success, though, two collective things have to happen. As Snedden keeps reiterating, New Zealanders need to embrace the entire event, not only their beloved All Blacks. Georgia v Romania in Palmerston North may be the acid test. It would also help if the hosts and Australia are not the only squads willing to display genuine ambition behind the scrum. Either way, I foresee a final between the fast-rising Wallabies and a grim-faced New Zealand, with Henry's team narrowly managing to deny the exceptional David Pocock and Will Genia. Should the All Blacks fail to claim the ultimate prize in front of their own supporters, the sepia-tinged ghosts of 1987 will haunt them for ever.